Recession Worries for Eurozone

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  • 02 mins 16 secs
Recent PMI data shows that economic activity throughout the eurozone had a broad pullback, leading many to believe that a recession could be close, says Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional. What does this mean for the EUR/USD? 

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CME Group

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After a three week 2% rally against the US dollar. The euro had a strong pull back on weaker than expected Eurozone. Economic data on October 24th


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survey data showed that the business activity throughout the eurozone had a broad pullback leading many to believe that a recession was close, but that's not the only current headwind for the euro. US yields have exploded higher in recent weeks, bolstering the dollar against most global currencies. US. 10 year treasury yields currently sit at 4.85% which is higher than all Euro Zone yields significantly higher than most including being 200 basis points higher than the German 10


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year yield currently at 2.85%. Now, some key economic data is coming up for the currency pair. That's gonna be the US GDP on October 26th. Consensus expectations are for an astounding 4.5% increase quarter over quarter versus a prior read of just 2.1%. Now, the German CP I comes out on October 30th and hopes for a continuation of a decline that began a year ago when inflation rates were


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over 10%. German CP. I has since fallen to 4.5% year over year. That was at the September release. Now, CME group offers three different size currency contracts, the standard, the mini and the micro in order to match a trader up with their preferred risk tolerance, we're gonna be using the micro in these examples. Now, if a trader believes that the Euro could continue its recent slide against the dollar, they could express that by selling the December Micro Euro futures contract at


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1.0620 and targeting a move to 1.0400. Now stop for this trade could be placed above it 1.0800. Now this trade can make $275. If the target is reached and risks 225 you're stopped at your level. Now, if trader believes the Euro could move higher from here, they could buy that December Micro Euro futures contract at 1.0620


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and target a move to the September 12th high of 1.0830. Now stop for this trade could be placed below at 1.0490. Now this trade could make $262.50 if the target is reached and risks 100 and $62.50. If you're stopped out of your level.

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